Tuesday, May 03, 2011

Trade your plan

As many of you know we have been obsessed with silver in the last month.  First we wanted it short against 50 and talked about it in several posts, especially The elusive silver top and we got our trade short.      Then we backed off for a while but kept talking about the trend-line long, here State of Affairs and posted a few charts on that 41 spot:

And finally posted it when we went long on the stream real-time at 40.79.    It took us two tries, first tried 41, got stopped for 14 cents, and then went for overshoot.  At this point we had a lot of conviction.  Why?  Because we had talked about it so much.   At the time it actually felt awful — it was kind of grinding down, heavy as hell, looked weak and we could have easily talked ourselves out of it.   But the only thing that helped us is that we had talked about that level so much, posted about it so many times, that we trusted it.    We hope that our posts help our followers in that we give them good ideas but the newsletter and stocktwits also helps us because it re-confirrms repeatedly levels that we think deserve to be acted on — levels like the trend-line on silver.

We took off all our positions save one last SI_F contract into the bounce:

If felt hairy and our hands were shaking but at the same time, we had so much conviction, enough to buy multiple contracts of SI_F, YI_F and for good measure, SLV (39.78 av).    Don’t ask why all three, not too logical, but somehow it helps us slow down the exits.   Do your homework before and when the time comes, trade your plan.     That being said, don’t be stupid either.   Trade your plan but don’t forget about risk management!
p.s. we have 1 contract $SI_F left with stop over entry – if 41 breaks we go flat.
p.p.s  stopped out of last contract.  Gave up nice $$ on that but we never regret losing potential profit on the last partial — we like to keep that in these type of trades for potential home-runs.
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