Note the test and success first of the 50SMA in Jan 2011, then the test and success of the 100SMA in March 2011, and now the test of the 200SMA in June 2011.
Note the first test of ascending SMA has a much better chance of success than the next tests (if tested in short period of time). The third test of the 50SMA failed and the second test of the 100SMA failed. We like first tests on ascending SMAs, but not so much the subsequent ones (unless considerable time has elapsed).
Click to enlarge:
We have no position currently in XME — possible overshoot if SPX goes for 1240-1250.