Friday, May 07, 2010

Market Talk

After yesterday's monster range traders like ourselves who key off daily charts will find it difficult to find new alerts.  We need to break out of yesterday's range or build mini-range in stocks over the next few days.  For today, we do nothing.

For us to cash out on the Wed support buys that we initially wanted to hold as swings on was obviously a good move.  Our time-frame is very short now and we can't imagine putting anything into the swing account for a while.  

We broke through the 200SMA yesterday on may of the stocks we follow (including SPY) which means that support buying for us will be on hold.  Buying breakouts doesn't look likely either which leaves shorts.  Shorting at resistance and shorting breakdowns will probably be the game plan going forward.

For now though we're happy to do nothing today and try to chill into the weekend.   We'll go through charts on Sunday and if anything sticks out we'll post it here.

Have a good weekend.

Wednesday, May 05, 2010

Buying support

Update:  we took it all off, and flat in all accounts.   Might regret it as our original plan was to swing but there's just too much news going around (yes, excuses excuses!)

As our readers know we came into the day looking to buy the 200SMA/dip.  We got rewarded well for buying the fear. We wrote in our newsletter last night, "If many of these hit simultaneously there's a good chance we'll get a reversal at the spots."  and that's exactly what happened.

We sold all of our CENX OIH ANR FCX JOYG POT into the bounce but are still holding a few  TCK AA SWN VALE ATPG  with stops now above entries.

We posted this at 9:54AM -- we were in before that but didn't have time to post.  Since we posted at that time however, we have used it to show entries with the arrow.  

It was one of our best days this year in terms of PnL in which a lot came together -- extremely oversold sectors hitting support simultaneously.

Tuesday, May 04, 2010

Market Talk

Update:  as we tweeted this morning "buying into massacre" we added CENX TCK FCX AA VALE ANR SWN ATPG JOYG POT and have already sold a lot into the bounce.  We'll hold a portion swing of all though if they can close well.

Commodity slaughter continues on the rise of the USD.     We entered the day with our swing account  100% cash but did make two purchases today.  OIH and CENX on the 200SMA test.    We initially had decided to put a stop of 119.1 on OIH (couple cents below today's low) but instead have sold half the swing position this afternoon and are holding very small size with no immediate stop.   We think the commodities should find some support soon as the XME SLX KOL are all close to the 200SMAs.    We will buy all of these, swing size, on those spots -- if we get there tomorrow.

Here are the charts:

One more sell-off like today and we should hit the 200SMAs on the following (arrow indicates our desired entry spots):