Monday, December 19, 2011

Remember that 2009 trendline

We wrote about the $SPY 2009 trend-line on this blog at least a dozen times earlier this year  — it was for us the only chart that counted.     Take a step back and take a look at what the market has done since we broke it– churn.   Like a dumb old fish bobbing its head up and down in the water.    A bunch of nothing.

Market looks like it’s establishing a new trend-line range:
Taking that into account with what we wrote about yesterday, it looks like we’re in for some interesting times.
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Sunday, December 18, 2011

Bonds and the case against a market bottom

A quick look at the March 2009 bottom versus our current position at the end of 2011.      Note how the inverse correlation between bonds and equities started to crumble in the three months before the S&P 500 market bottom.    $TLT topped 3 months before equities (just one more piece of evidence that equities are the last to know after bonds, currencies, and futures).      If history is to repeat in this 2011 Euro crisis then we’d expect the inverse correlation bond/equity to also start to falter, something that hasn’t occurred  yet.    Something to keep on radar.