Saturday, June 04, 2011

A special "Never Give Up" Motivational Poster for Finance Types

Motivational Poster of a come-back kid for finance types:

Incredible power of healing with Time (note– only when combined with sick innovative products led by a genius — usually does not apply to Scam Chinese Reverse Merger stocks )

AAPL circa Fall 2000 after if lost 80% of its value within months:

AAPL 2011

Just a lighthearted post from your friendly HCPG crew who are currently playing around with Esignal’s new Go To Date feature.   :-)
Follow us on StockTwits and Twitter

Looking for a short-term trade bounce on the SPY using the Bollinger Bands as a guide

Many traders look for complex algorithms to tell them when the market is ready to bounce but in reality, all you need is a Bollinger Band.   We usually like to buy support when we have the whole sector hit support at the same time.   In fact, these have been our most profitable trades over the course of our trading career.   However, in some situations, like the one we’re in now, sectors are below support and we cannot rely on that strategy for assessing support buys.   When this occurs we look to Bollinger Bands on SPY for quick trades into the blood.

We closed Friday under the Bollinger Band, the first time since March 16.   As you can see from the last time it occurred it offered a nice opportunity long for traders.

Bollinger Bands are great general tools for ETFs

Let’s zoom out and look for other instances SPY has closed below the Bollinger Band.  Time and time again this simple tool has given great general reference points for bounces.

Ideally we sell off into next support, which is at 129.5 zone, and then enjoy a dead cat bounce.  As you know we believe this is a range-bound market meaning we also do not expect a straight trend down.   However, the emphasis lately seems to have shifted from “buy the dip” to “sell the rip”.

Our range now is between 131.4 resistance (which was the old support gap fill) and 129.5 support.

Please view everything we write in the context of our time-frame as short-term traders.

Follow us on StockTwits and Twitter

Thursday, June 02, 2011

Why all traders should watch copper

How many times have we heard about Dr. Copper as a great “tell” for the economy?   It’s on the radar for most longer-term traders but it should also be on the radar for short-term traders.    We’ve said it a hundred times to our subscribers over the years that copper is THE tell on our market screen.   It often leads the market up and down.   Today was a fantastic example as it bottomed at 11:30 bar while the SPX kept falling for another 18 minutes until it bottomed.

Take a look at this overlay of SPY over HG_F

And in real-time, only on StockTwits  (not on WSJ, not on CNBC!)  the call from our esteemed friend Dinosaur Trader.

Follow us on StockTwits and Twitter

Wednesday, June 01, 2011

Market Damage SPY

We took out 3 major moving averages today, 20SMA, 50SMA, and  tagging the 100 SMA which  finally stalled the bleeding.    From a technical point of view we’re working with damaged goods now.   We’ll spare you the “stock picker’s market, be cautious, raise cash” cliches, but we think we’re in for a range bound grind of a summer going forward.   Oh yes, and this will be  a stock picker’s market, please be cautious and raise some cash.  :-)
Four slow steps up, and one very dirty fast move down.

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Daytrader Toolbox: when to short the gap up

We had a lot of spots in our newsletter last night that we liked if they could have waited a few days.  We had nothing that was ready.   A number of them gapped above and proceeded to sell off for the morning.   Reader M.D. wrote to us last night:
“I understand your preference on the market action.  On many setups you write ‘needs a day’ or a few.  What if the market does not play ball, and the alerts trigger tomorrow?  Do you pass on them?  Or if not, how would you play?”

We answered back:

“Then we usually look for shorts on breakout failures, shorts on ES, or just sit it out.”

If the market has run a lot for support to resistance, and there are no alerts that are ready, then shorting a gap up is usually a very good risk-reward trade.   This is very similar to our strategy of  buying the gap down on a market that closes oversold on support.    It has a very consistent win rate and something we recommend you add to your tool-box if you are a daytrader.

Big run from support to resistance — silly gap up on an extended market means good risk-reward short.

Follow us on StockTwits and Twitter