Wednesday, February 09, 2011

Commodity Talk

We're finally seeing some volatility enter the picture -- good for us active traders. 

Coal stocks not looking hot as many are through the 50SMA today -- broken for now, we're not interested in touching these for a while.   Our favorite in the sector, WLT, has a similar chart.

Posted this chart right at the 50SMA yesterday noting that it had rallied all the way from 200 SMA support to now 50SMA resistance.  Nice reversal and follow through today -- technically we still like the sector but the move needs to be digested before we see good risk/reward entry in the juniors. 


Posted chart on Monday  "Shares are hard to locate but if you can this looks like decent  entry short.   Risk defined with stop on today's high."  If you found the shares, congrats, working well.    First major support not until trend-line currently at 146-147.

FXI held 41.2 support that we posted last week -- we'll see if there's any continuation here tomorrow.  Very significant divergence between US market and  China, Brazil and for the most part emerging markets.  

Breakdown continuation in FCX today -- and looks like it wants to kiss the 100 SMA which would be first support.

Commodities are telling the bear story and stocks like AAPL are telling the bull story.    Incredible power and resilience in the stock.

Monday, February 07, 2011

Mixed Bag

We had mediocre alerts (i.e. not our favorite stocks) going into today and most of those triggered for small daytrade pops.  Nothing too exciting.   It's a mixed bag and we don't feel particularly strong conviction in either side but do believe the action going forward is going to be less "easy".   We have on medium position short ES_F but are not gunning it and have 2.25 point stop (1318 entry, 1320.25 which is just over today's high, is our stop), so keeping things tight.  (update, scratched the trade on lack of follow through.  Will get involved again if we see further cracks to the foundation.).

On the bullish side and reason we can't go all hoo hah bearish: charts of leader stocks like AAPL which look strong and still trending higher.

GS through 50 SMA again and looks good, sector picked up steam today.

OIH has no clear resistance but severe congestion in the 155-160 zone.  Shares are hard to locate but if you can this looks like decent  entry short.   Risk defined with stop on today's high.

On the bearish side crude weak. 

And the stock we like the most as our tell, FCX,  back through 50SMA with full reversal today.

Mixed bag. Take a side, and keep things tight!