Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Market Thoughts

We had 11 support alerts hit today — many in the same sector.  When this happens, (simultaneous support alerts going off) it often results in a strong bounce.  This was not the case today.   Even though most closed at least near or higher than the original alert, quite a few first went below before finding intraday bottom, and then bounced higher.     It wasn’t ideal but there still were opportunities long ( in fact $CSX $HOC $FLR $JDSU $X  alerts from last night’s newsletter worked at/near the alert for decent daytrade  bounces).    Basically, what didn’t work at support was the oil and gas sector.

We ended the day green, not by much, and we churned a lot (thanks mostly to $OXY) but still green enough to still feel rewarded for buying the dip.   We won’t stop looking for support alerts until this reward feedback stops, i.e. we get punched in the face by mother market.    And then we’ll start thinking about replacing support long strategy (which we use for bull markets) with breakdown short (which we use in bear markets).   But we’re not there yet.   Not even close.

Incredible run on the $XLE — give and take and basing all part of normal cycle.  Next big support not until 72.

Monday, April 11, 2011

Steel Ideas

Three support areas coming up in the steels that we like for a trade  (a trade for us means daytrade or if we’re lucky and get enough safety cushion into the close a possible 1-2 day hold).
ATI 60.6 zone add alert

NUE 44.8 add alert

X 50 add alert.

This market has come a long way in a short period of time — these pull-back moves are all part of a healthy cycle.  As we’ve written many times in the past we will not be worried until support buyers cease to show up.  When that happens we’ll definitely step-back and re-assess.   Until then though, business as usual.