Thursday, December 24, 2009

Easy Tape

The current market is one of the "easy tape". Whatever one puts on (as long as its long) goes up - technicals work like magic and stocks do exactly what they're supposed to. We all look like geniuses. Don't get complacent -- this type of tape never lasts.

Don't be the happy little pig lulled and fattened up by the "kind" farmer (mother market) before your throat is slit one morning and you're on someone's plate served as sausage.

We were telling ourselves this morning how we're hitting the ball out of the park with every trade, like we can do no wrong, and how buying every dip is working like magic. Right after we said that there was a moment of silence -- we've been here many times before in our 13 years of trading and often it comes right before a change -- when suddenly stuff doesn't work, and stocks don't obey one's playbook. Don't be complacent. The gig is on full-play right now -- enjoy it, play it hard, but be on alert for the possibility of a change into a less benign trading environment.

And on that cautionary note, happy holidays to our readers, and we'll see you here next week.


Holiday Trading

Holiday trading can sometimes be so predictable as traders run third-tier names (i.e. AIG) and small-cap Momentum names.

This is the reason we had AONE 20.5 in our newsletter all week on break-out watch:

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

This is what a benign market looks like

ALL our triggers from this week -- as you can see, great continuation:

AAPL 197 on trend-line break

AKS 21.2 on trend-line break

APC 63.2 on trend-line break

BCSI 28 was our best trade this week:

CNQ 70 was channel break-out

GLD 105 was a support buy (we tweeted it our buy live at 105.4 yesterday)

GNK was a support buy with alert at 20.7 (didn't quite make it) on the 200 SMA

HGSI 29.5 worked well

Our only short, HIG 23, which didn't work:

RS 45 on resistance break

SPW 55.8 on trend-line break

XLE 57.2 long on trend-line break

XOM talk

XOM acts heavy but as long as the trend-line holds the long is valid. Relatively safe trade considering how close stock is to support:

Technically rewarding market

This is a perfectly benign market where stocks bounce where they should bounce and obey technical rules -- enjoy it and play it as hard as you can for however long it lasts.

Even though we're primarily day-traders our entries are based on daily charts. What we've been telling our day-trader subscriber base is to try at least holding partial positions as swings as the follow-through lately has been excellent.

Here's another example of a perfect bounce on support:

Here's another example of a perfect trading opportunity -- we "tweeted" on this when it happened on Monday:

GMCR buyers defend the 50 SMA

Close up -- awesome!

We're closing shop now for the week (holding long $GLD $AU $SLB $CNQ $APC $SPY). Happy holidays to all of you from the three of us at HCPG-- we'll see you next week.

Oil Power

Three energy stocks from our newsletter last night breaking out:

Market needs the fins

The market will not successfully break-out without the financials participating. This divergence is a bit worrisome and we won't get aggressively long until the financials firm up.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Chart talk

Volume is going to be aneamic but chances are the market is going to try to break-out tomorrow.

Steel acts great -- we highlighted AKS MTL yesterday, here's one more -- RS 45.

Starter positions for longer term accts

We dipped our toes in three stocks this morning for our longer term accts. Theme was gold and Ags.

We bought YONG at 7.16, GLD at 105.4, and AU at 39.7. YONG is very small position which we will probably not add on but GLD we will happily add at 104.5 and 100. AU we will add on at 39. Here are the charts:

Metal Strength

While gold is pulling back sharply other metals are at recent highs. Steel particularly is hot right now -- these are from last night's newsletters but still look good for near-term future.

Monday, December 21, 2009

Energy stocks trend-lines/50 SMA

We have literally a dozen charts like this one -- very bullish on a break above (over 100.5 on closing basis) but until then stay neutral.

AAPL talk

AAPL smashed through the 197 trend-line/50 SMA (in our newsletter last night) but stopped short of 200 resistance. Any basing over the 50 SMA and under 200 SMA would be bullish.

GDX through trend-line

GDX through trend-line and heading towards the 200 SMA. If we can reach that area quickly in oversold status we will be swing long GDX at 41.5

BVN trend-line 29

Still a bit away but we love this for a long support:

Oversold sector going into trend-line/200 SMA near 29 on BVN. The faster BVN gets there the higher the chance of success.

Sunday, December 20, 2009

Ag-Chem support

Ag-Chem stocks are slowly coming into very nice support zones. Our favorite is the following:


A lot of oil charts have similar set-ups -- basing under the trend-line/50 SMA. We'd be buyers of a high-volume break-out of the sector:

AAPL we'd be long at support near 185 or on a break-out through the trend-line.

Free Newsletter for Dec 21

We discuss some notes on swing trading support and have a decent amount of stocks for the week.

Free newsletter for the holidays.

E-mail us at info AT highchartpatterns DOT com