Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Gap fill magnet?

It’s not really our job to be bearish or bullish, our time-frame is too short. Our job is to go through charts the night before and come up with actionable alerts for the next day.  This has been very difficult lately due to the (more so than usual) randomness of the market via gaps.   However, we think it will get easier soon for our type of trading based on the charts we see (as @todaytrader says, fingers crossed).     Let’s take a look ahead:

Huge gap — will it act as magnet?   We’d love to see a fill on this gap and our style would dictate a buy on the 50SMA.     We’re not betting on it but it’s definitely a possibility for which we want to be  prepared.
The junior gold miner ETF ($GDXJ) is one of our favorite trading vehicles — and it illustrates some tough slogging ahead for the bulls.  We posted this chart numberous times in November — we had bought a test of the trend-line on November 10 but had warned that another test of the trend-line would probably cater through.  Technically this is still a bearish chart and for our time-frame the first test of the 50SMA (blue line)  is a short.
Note that bonds are still not rolling over yet — $TLT bounced on 50SMA today.  Keep today’s low on radar for rest of week.
A win for the bulls here as copper ($HG_F) loved the China lowering reserve requirement news — through trend-line with a blast,  bullish.
It’s hard not to get excited over today’s action but stay cool — bulls still need to prove their mettle going forward.   There are a lot of potential new spots we found today on daily but all of them need a bit of basing ($CAM 54, $GD 66.5 to give two examples).  All we care about are opportunities, long and short, and it looks like we should get many of them in the coming days.