Saturday, April 02, 2011

Two "G" ideas for next week

The best two ideas we have for next week are swing long $GS and $GDXJ.  Both these names have been recently on our radar, as posted on change of character tweet as it lifted off the 200SMA on Tuesday and $GDXJ trend-line break that we have been patiently waiting for all week.
Here are the updated charts:

The 200SMA held and this financial king is starting to act better — we like the recent action and think it’s a good swing candidate on the break of trend-line/50 SMA which are almost aligned near 162.

We always have an eye on this gold miners juniors ETF as it is, in our opinion, the best technical ETF out there.  We were hoping to get in near 37.2 for entry and hold for reversal back up to the trend-line but it never pulled back to that area.  We like the recent basing  and like this as swing long on break of trend-line.

Sunday, March 27, 2011

Oil and Gas

Our readers know that oil and gas has been our favorite sector to trade for a while. Most of the charts in the sector though have rallied significantly in the last little while and are quite extended. Here are a few that are on our screen:
Let’s start with a driller that actually is under-performing:
We like RIG 74-75 on support, or on breakout of trend-line on strength. Anything in the middle we’ll leave alone:

The next six charts all belong to refiners/marketing sub-sector.
HOC is our favorite (and we got long on anticipation of trend-line break on Friday and are holding). Next resistance is 60 and 62. Great chart.

VLO beautiful bounce from 50SMA. Nothing wrong with this chart but a bit of basing under recent highs would make it look even better (and give us an entry!).

FTO similar chart but more extended from 50SMA. Very strong, and looks like it wants to get out of this recent range asap. Too extended for us to swing but active traders will probably be interested in 29 for a quick one.

WNR a bit more messy and no clear spot yet but a few days under 17.5 would set it up.

TSO made our newsletter after Japan for a target trade to 26 which worked great. It’s now regained that area and looks to be grinding higher. Too extended for us to get involved.

SUN the strongest of all and has already broken out. Very impressive but too late here for our style.

The next charts belong to the sub-sector of independent oil and gas:
Nice basing here under 78 for NFX– this could be a nice one if it can sit for a few more days.

Similar chart here for DNR to a lot of the refiners, again, too Vish for us, needs to base.

OXY trying to lift off from 50SMA. Not a bad swing right here with stop under 50SMA.

Nice action PXD as it lifted from 50SMA, again decent entry right here with stop under Thursday low.

Chop Chop

Many sectors stalled or reversed at resistance on Friday.  Expect some choppiness ahead as market decides its direction (bull option: digest the move and plow ahead; bear option: bounce over, back down to lows).  Considering recent resilience of the market bias is firmly with the bulls until proven otherwise.

 SPY reversed at trend-line

QQQ reversed at 50SMA and trend-line

We posted this chart a few times last week expecting a move and pause into this area.   Basing under would be healthy in order to set up a new move up.

DBA big move from 100SMA into 50SMA and now pause.

The BEST technical ETF we follow -- GDXJ bounced again perfectly on the 200SMA right into trend-line and now basing on 100SMA.    It could retrace 50% of the move and still be bullish.  Beautiful chart.

SLX we had charted last week as a move from trend-line to 50SMA -- here it is and now pause.  Again, any basing here would be healthy. 

Our favorite sector right now is Oil and Gas -- note how it's basing under trend-line.  We're expecting a breakout soon from this area. 

KOL has also been hot -- we're basing near recent highs.  Any digestion here would be very healthy for the upside.