Saturday, May 23, 2009

SPY Talk

Clear range is setting up in the market with support at around 88 (875 on the S&P) -- if that goes then watch for a move to the 50SMA-- and major resistance on the SPY at 93-94 (and 200 SMA). Within that range we have now a c lear minor resistance at 90; a high-volume close above 90 could rally us back to resistance zone in a hurry.

No predictions as to which direction this small range (88-90) will break but we'd prefer a move down to the 50SMA to give this potential March bottom a broader base and more backing and filling.

Point A is the trend-line that we broke and keep visiting from the other side. Point B is support, and Point C is resistance.

Friday, May 22, 2009

Get your lawn chair out

We're stuck in this range in the SPY with the floor being 88 support, and the ceiling previous highs and 200 SMA around 93-94. Until that is resolved, be prepared for choppy, trend-less action.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Day Traders get their day

It's not 1 PM yet so too early to call it but thus far it looks like a reversal day. Consolidation near resistance is actually good for the bullish case -- as long as the pull-back doesn't gain momentum towards 88. Let's see how it looks at 4 PM.

These are ALL the stocks that triggered from last night's newsletter, losers and winners.

ACI 18 worked well if you were fast.

CLF 25.

CNX 40.5

GNK 21


MEE 21.4

Best set-up of the day goes to base and break 1 point under daily spot on MON (91 base and break under 92 daily spot).

NEM 44.75

PCU 20

TBSI 10.5 didn't work. We don't like trading sub-$20 stocks and regret putting this one on the letter.

VMW 29 excellent set-up for a big size/close stop trade (as opposed to wider stop/fewer shares trades we recommend on commodities).

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Suspense Continues

SPY testing the other side of the trend-line and looks like it wants up for a visit to the 200 SMA. We're neutral now, bullish on a close above (92), and bearish on a break of 88. Four point range.

Monday, May 18, 2009

Monday morning green shoots

The market gapped up today (complete reversal from futures being down almost 1% last night) on upgrade on BAC, an uptick in "homebuilder sentiment," good news from home improvement stock, LOW, and a 17% rally with love from India.

We would have much preferred a visit to the 50SMA but the bulls went with the news and didn't relinquish an inch to the bears all day long.

It's hazy out there and we're sticking to pure day-trading as we can't see a clear direction on the SPY. On one hand it looks like we're going to go visit the 200 SMA and resistance at 94, but on the other hand volume was light and this one-day bounce will need continuation before it can be believed. Much too blurry for our taste (and the few number of set-ups we have for tomorrow reflects this).