Conjecture?

Last Sunday night we were glued to the screen.  Silver had suddenly been shot in the head diving down 13% (!!) while ES_F stayed green, up 4 points.   We couldn’t figure out what was happening but were amazed ES would stay green while silver was being shot dead.    Then the news came that Osama had been killed — we had quite a bit of conviction that the good news (in a very extended market) would be sold.   We quickly put up our Osama Top post when futures were up 12 at 1372 (now down 24 points from that call) and warned in our tweets that we believed that the rally would be faded.
We’ve been on twitter for over a year and  have put out a newsletter 5 times a week now for 5 years.    We respect a lot of pros on our stream  @dinosaurtrader @gtotoy @zortrades @szaman @peterlbrandt  (just a few names among many that pop out — all our 36 follows rock) and for the most part we’ve earned the respect of our followers.     And then once in a while we get tweets like this — which came our right after our Osama top post:


Of course it’s conjecture.  What else would it be?   The best any trader can do is to made an educated guess based on their strategy and experience.    Man….

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