Monday, April 04, 2011

Technical Stars Line Up

We see it all the time — just as a stock hits a significant technical level some fundamental news comes that makes it bounce. We think to ourselves, this has to be a coincidence, we just got lucky, but it occurs with such frequency that it makes you go hmmmm…
The support longs in our newsletter this weekend consisted of tech stocks and within those domination by semi stocks (it’s almost always commodities so this was an anomaly), with BRCM being the star. The alert was 37.8-38 (today’s low was 37.78, and it traded to 200 SMA 39.4 in AH session). We also posted some freebies during the day about INTC BRCM and SMH mentioning that support buyers were putting up a fight.

he semi complex is up across the board tonight as $TXN buys for $NSM with a fat juicy 80% premium. We don’t actually believe that $TXN decided to time its release of the acquisition news of $NSM based on the stock hitting it’s 200SMA/ $SMH hitting 100SMA. That of course is a coincidence, and it would be very naive to believe otherwise. But at same time there are many similar examples, and it’s hard to believe in coincidences that happen with such consistent frequency. However, we have often seen analyst upgrades come exactly as stocks hit support and we believe those indeed were intentional in order to maximize short squeeze potential. We’re not going to over-think  it — we’ll just keep going with what works. Chart voodoo indeed.