Friday, April 08, 2011

Market Notes and Week Review

Everyday in our newsletter we review all the triggered trades from the previous night’s alert list.   We’re going to do a modified version for this blog, reviewing all swing trade ideas shared in the blog that trigger during the week.   Last weekend we gave you $GDXJ $GS trend-line long ideas, and both worked well.   GDXJ was straight-forward, broke trend-line and never looked back.  We swung it into today but closed the last partial of the position today.    GS was more tricky as it didn’t trigger for a few days and thus trend-line moved from 162 to 160 (as we told our subscribers in our newsletter) with targets of 162 and 164.  GS hit our two targets and then reversed back into congestion zone (and hit our raised stop).  Mission accomplished.

We have a feeling that next week we’ll be looking more at support trades than break-out trades.  We like the refiners and are half-regretting not putting on an overnight position near the close as they are all finished right at daily support.   However,  since our brains seem to be constituted of 80% daytrader/20% swing genes we wanted to be flat and re-assess on Monday.   We’re all cash going into the weekend.
On a final note:  $USDX death and crude oil $CL_F rip  are reaching “too much/too fast” regions and we think there should be some reversion to mean soon in the names.   As we tweeted today the market is starting to be more “reactive” to crude movements.  We believe we’re at the point now where this relationship will increase at a much greater speed than in previous weeks.   The weight of the price of oil is finally showing up in the market price-action.  Crude rallied almost 4% in the last 2 days — market dipped on both days but was able to regain its composure by the close.  Another move up like that in crude and we don’t think late buyers will show up with the same enthusiasm.