As many of you know we have been watching GS for a while -- patiently waiting for the trend-line to break. GS has been acting terrible of late with poor relative action. Today it started to firm up and act better, showing good relative strength. Here is our trade (all tweeted in real-time):
At point (a) we have the base and break under the number (usually a clean number but in the case of GS was around 165.5 - 166). Note the volume spike. We were long in size at 164.60 av. The stock pulled back on light volume and then rallied straight up to R1, which is a great day-trader exit --we took off 20% at point (b). So far so good for the stock but the problem was that the S&P started failing and hit low of day, not good as GS can't run by itself. We sold most of our position at point (c) and held some at break-even stop (164.6), which was hit shortly after (d). We still made some money on it due to our size but we of course would have preferred a successful break-out -- if that had been the case we would have sold a good portion by end of day but kept at least 20% for swing.
Over the years we have normally day-traded 80% and swing-traded 20%. We've been increasing the swing position lately and plan to do so for as long as the market volatility remains low and the bull uptrend remains intact.
Munger: The Psychology of Human Misjudgement
5 hours ago