An educational blog which supplements subscriber service Chart Patterns are nothing but Footprints of the Greenbacks.
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
XOM talk
XOM acts heavy but as long as the trend-line holds the long is valid. Relatively safe trade considering how close stock is to support:
Technically rewarding market
This is a perfectly benign market where stocks bounce where they should bounce and obey technical rules -- enjoy it and play it as hard as you can for however long it lasts.
Even though we're primarily day-traders our entries are based on daily charts. What we've been telling our day-trader subscriber base is to try at least holding partial positions as swings as the follow-through lately has been excellent.
Here's another example of a perfect bounce on support:
Here's another example of a perfect trading opportunity -- we "tweeted" on this when it happened on Monday:
GMCR buyers defend the 50 SMA
Close up -- awesome!
We're closing shop now for the week (holding long $GLD $AU $SLB $CNQ $APC $SPY). Happy holidays to all of you from the three of us at HCPG-- we'll see you next week.
Even though we're primarily day-traders our entries are based on daily charts. What we've been telling our day-trader subscriber base is to try at least holding partial positions as swings as the follow-through lately has been excellent.
Here's another example of a perfect bounce on support:
Here's another example of a perfect trading opportunity -- we "tweeted" on this when it happened on Monday:
GMCR buyers defend the 50 SMA
Close up -- awesome!
We're closing shop now for the week (holding long $GLD $AU $SLB $CNQ $APC $SPY). Happy holidays to all of you from the three of us at HCPG-- we'll see you next week.
Market needs the fins
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Chart talk
Starter positions for longer term accts
We dipped our toes in three stocks this morning for our longer term accts. Theme was gold and Ags.
We bought YONG at 7.16, GLD at 105.4, and AU at 39.7. YONG is very small position which we will probably not add on but GLD we will happily add at 104.5 and 100. AU we will add on at 39. Here are the charts:
Metal Strength
Monday, December 21, 2009
Energy stocks trend-lines/50 SMA
AAPL talk
GDX through trend-line
BVN trend-line 29
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Charts
Free Newsletter for Dec 21
We discuss some notes on swing trading support and have a decent amount of stocks for the week.
Free newsletter for the holidays.
E-mail us at info AT highchartpatterns DOT com
Free newsletter for the holidays.
E-mail us at info AT highchartpatterns DOT com
Friday, December 18, 2009
Gold talk
Natural Gas
Natural Gas is like the wild, wild West of energy and investing in it can be tricky. We prefer to invest in natural gas companies than the commodity or heaven forbid, the ETF (UNG).
Here is a handy chart that tells the tale well comparing an ETF invested in natural gas companies (FCG) to natural gas futures (pink line) and the contango-suffering natural gas future ETF UNG (purple line).
We don't want to chase price up at this point and are waiting for a pull-back to get into some natural gas companies (LINE PXD FST EOG SWN APC, etc). We are admittedly late to this party (ok, very late -- our focus has been oil and not natural gas) but we would be interested in buying pull-backs to support in this sector. Some would argue that the divergence between the commodity and the stocks at this point illustrates that one should sell the stocks and buy the futures but we'd rather take our chance with buying the stocks on support.
Here is a handy chart that tells the tale well comparing an ETF invested in natural gas companies (FCG) to natural gas futures (pink line) and the contango-suffering natural gas future ETF UNG (purple line).
We don't want to chase price up at this point and are waiting for a pull-back to get into some natural gas companies (LINE PXD FST EOG SWN APC, etc). We are admittedly late to this party (ok, very late -- our focus has been oil and not natural gas) but we would be interested in buying pull-backs to support in this sector. Some would argue that the divergence between the commodity and the stocks at this point illustrates that one should sell the stocks and buy the futures but we'd rather take our chance with buying the stocks on support.
SPY test
Today we finally had the 50 SMA/bottom of channel test that we've written about -- this is the level that has to hold for the bulls.
Considering the number of sectors considerably off their highs the S&P 500 (think financials and energy to start) this resilience is impressive.
Considering the number of sectors considerably off their highs the S&P 500 (think financials and energy to start) this resilience is impressive.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Trading Talk
We are aggressive momentum traders when a market is coming off a bottom, or one which we feel still has a lot of room for upside.
However in a market which has rallied as much as this one we prefer to wait for a pull-back to support before entering instead of buying new highs.
Momentum trading is more active for us as one alert after another goes off. Support buying on the other hand means one has a lot more time on one's hand (sometimes the more difficult of the two) and has be patient and wait for the trade to pull-back to one's target entry point.
These are the type of set-ups we've had in the newsletter the last few weeks and the type of set-ups we will be looking for in the near future. As an additional note -- support buying lends itself more to swing-trading than day-trading and going forward we're going to have selections such as these as swing trades.
Deeply oversold stock in a bull market, falling into support, is often one of the most successful swing set-ups:
Arrow points to the buy point featured in the newsletter:
However in a market which has rallied as much as this one we prefer to wait for a pull-back to support before entering instead of buying new highs.
Momentum trading is more active for us as one alert after another goes off. Support buying on the other hand means one has a lot more time on one's hand (sometimes the more difficult of the two) and has be patient and wait for the trade to pull-back to one's target entry point.
These are the type of set-ups we've had in the newsletter the last few weeks and the type of set-ups we will be looking for in the near future. As an additional note -- support buying lends itself more to swing-trading than day-trading and going forward we're going to have selections such as these as swing trades.
Deeply oversold stock in a bull market, falling into support, is often one of the most successful swing set-ups:
Arrow points to the buy point featured in the newsletter:
AAPL
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Fumes
We're not smart enough to be anticipatory traders -- we are nothing but your classic trend-traders. The current trend is up meaning every day we look to buy break-outs and support longs. But at the same time we look at the following chart and understand what the bears see and the potential for the pull-back. We will trade long for as long as the good times last but at the same time we'll be more careful going forward with buying support.
The 1 year chart looks vulnerable:
The short-term chart shows the market stuck in a channel between SPY 112-109 -- note how the 50 SMA has caught up to the bottom of the channel.
The 1 year chart looks vulnerable:
The short-term chart shows the market stuck in a channel between SPY 112-109 -- note how the 50 SMA has caught up to the bottom of the channel.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
GS trend-line
Volume is light and the market is still stuck in the range (USD rallying not helping). We've been knocking around 15-20 cent trades today which is somewhat pathetic but at least pays some bills. Without volume there is no good intraday movement for our stocks. If the volume is going to remain this low for an extended period of time then it will force us to look more and more toward swing trading. Our entries for our newsletter alerts are based on daily charts so swing-trading the picks would come naturally.
Keep an eye on GS in the near future and the trend-line currently near 168 if we rally. If we sell-off then first support is around 157 and then comes the 200 SMA near 151. We'd probably day-trade long the 157 support but would be interested in swing-long off the 200 SMA.
Keep an eye on GS in the near future and the trend-line currently near 168 if we rally. If we sell-off then first support is around 157 and then comes the 200 SMA near 151. We'd probably day-trade long the 157 support but would be interested in swing-long off the 200 SMA.
Monday, December 14, 2009
Test of Range
Sunday, December 13, 2009
Thursday, December 10, 2009
50 SMA catching up
There's a good chance that the SPY 109-112 range will not be resolved until the 50 SMA catches up. The bullish scenario would be a final bounce on the 109 support/50 SMA and into new highs for year-end.
Bearish scenario is a break-down through 50SMA/support and a correction to end the year. Stay tuned and until then try not to do too many boredom trades.
Crude
Friday, December 04, 2009
Line in the sand
The line in the sand was drawn for many commodity stocks today. Take a look at these levels:
ANR bounced on the trend-line today. If you're a bull, you want this to hold:
The 50 SMA stopped the bleeding on BTU. Through this level and next stop is the trend-line at 40, and if that doesn't hold then the 200 SMA.
BVN, one of our favorite gold stocks, stopped on the 50 SMA level. Again, this level must hold or you'll see much lower prices.
CHK bounced on the 200 SMA (newsletter selection for support long yesterday). Again, this level must hold.
GLD bounced on the 20 SMA -- through here and it will have a date with the 50SMA.
MDR, a newsletter support long pick from yesterday at 20.2, bounced on the 200 SMA. Again, bulls need to hold this level.
OIH, along with many oil stocks, especially drillers, is rolling -- Very nice support at the 200 SMA area near 102.
Note how the XLE has been supported by the 50 SMA since late July. Also note today's second close under the 50 SMA. Like OIH we would not be surprised to see a 200 SMA visit on XLE near 50.
ANR bounced on the trend-line today. If you're a bull, you want this to hold:
The 50 SMA stopped the bleeding on BTU. Through this level and next stop is the trend-line at 40, and if that doesn't hold then the 200 SMA.
BVN, one of our favorite gold stocks, stopped on the 50 SMA level. Again, this level must hold or you'll see much lower prices.
CHK bounced on the 200 SMA (newsletter selection for support long yesterday). Again, this level must hold.
GLD bounced on the 20 SMA -- through here and it will have a date with the 50SMA.
MDR, a newsletter support long pick from yesterday at 20.2, bounced on the 200 SMA. Again, bulls need to hold this level.
OIH, along with many oil stocks, especially drillers, is rolling -- Very nice support at the 200 SMA area near 102.
Note how the XLE has been supported by the 50 SMA since late July. Also note today's second close under the 50 SMA. Like OIH we would not be surprised to see a 200 SMA visit on XLE near 50.
What a mess!
The SPY looks quite fragile up here -- we'll daytrade longs as usual but no swing longs for us until at least SPY 108 near trend-line/50 SMA. This is a complete battle now between the bears and the bulls: the bulls can't seem to re-take SPY 112 area and have failed every attempt at break-out while the bears haven't been able to get any kind of continuation on the downside. The conclusion? Tug of war with a tight range (SPY 110-112) which hopefully will break one way or another soon. The bulls have a lot of work ahead of them if they want to take this market higher into the New Year with gold breaking down, oils and financials sick, and the USD finally rallying.
Hat tip to our friend Dinosaur Trader who bought the USD and shorted Gold into the close yesterday. Sweet!
Wednesday, December 02, 2009
Market Talk
We have market close to a break-out into new YTD highs but oils and financials lagging badly. This means to us that even if we do break-out there is a higher chance than usual to fail, or that this is the last leg of the March rally before a correction sets in. Of course we could be wrong but how can the market have a healthy break-out with the financials and oil stocks under their respective 50 SMA? Small-cap gambling-type stocks are where the best action is right now --- again a not too healthy sign for the general market.
Having said all that, for the most part we're day-traders and if long side is where the action is, that is where we will be. But for you swing traders out there, especially in extended sectors such as gold, stay alert.
Having said all that, for the most part we're day-traders and if long side is where the action is, that is where we will be. But for you swing traders out there, especially in extended sectors such as gold, stay alert.
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