Our tells of Euro ($6E_F) lagging, combined with lack of good set-ups, and Ags ($POT $MOS $AGU $CF) underperforming helped us and our subscribers stay away from swing longs BEFORE the down move.
For the last 4 months the golden rule has been — the more the bulls get excited, the more you go to cash. We broke the mini triangle down but we’re still in the bigger channel which has support around 119-119.5 on the $SPY. Note that the trend-line moves every day and target needs to be adjusted.
Our favorite “tell” sectors are completely broken. However, SPY will probably offer a decent short-term trade on the bottom of this channel. We like the idea of an overshoot of the 50SMA (120.8) to bring in some panic, and then a bounce around 119 zone on bottom blue line.
If the bottom line of channel breaks (currently around SPY 119-119.5) then it’s going to get a lot dicier to navigate. However, we’ll worry about that if/when it happens. Have a good week.