Monday, September 19, 2011

Which one is telling the truth?

The divergence between tech/consumer discretionary and almost everything else has been a recent theme for a while. When tech started rallying last week we were looking for basic materials to catch up (and didn’t have much luck there as very few broke-out of our set-ups). Here’s a nice little chart $AAPL overlaid with copper (via $JJC) to show you how surprising this divergence is becoming:

AAPL at year high while copper at year lows.

We’d be happy with a market led by tech/momo names but the other sectors still usually go in more or less the same direction. A real up-trend is not going to happen with a dying basic material/financial sector. So which one is telling the truth? Will the momentum names pull up the whole market or will the laggards anchor down the healthy sectors?