Tuesday, August 09, 2011

Random Thoughts

  • Historic range today as we are now 9% higher than the overnight low ($ES_F).   The only way to interpret the close was that it was very bullish — FOMC was perceived as a negative for the market in that there was no QE3– market sold off, paused, and then ripped higher finishing on the highs.
  •  As the trading maxim goes:  going up on bad news is always very bullish.  Of course we also to have to keep in mind that the best rallies come in bear markets.  However, as active traders, let’s not worry about that one yet and enjoy some possible short-term moves up for the immediate future.
  • The big test for us as to whether this is a bottom, or nothing more than a dead cat bounce, is what happens on the test of the underside of the 2009 trend-line:

Trend-line on the $SPY currently near 128 –  still a long way off but definitely something that is on our radar.     Unless there’s some new events coming out of Europe our thinking is that the short-term bias is long for the next few days at least.  1077 short term bottom.

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