Monday, August 15, 2011

Now the hard work begins

The panic last week took us straight to the 200SMA on the monthly chart of $SPX.   The resulting bounce took us back up to close the week off back to the 50SMA:

Today we stopped dead on at 1200 resistance:
And to end the symphony even the intraday set up today at resistance at R2:
We’re now up 10% from the $ES_F 1077 bottom in a very short time.    Our best case for the bulls is to start basing near the upper side of the range (without giving up too much) and  thus a) negate the bear flag pattern  and b) set up longs that are much too V-ish to work right now.    
The more we rally from here in an extended form the higher the chance of failure.       The bounce from extremely oversold levels is always the easiest bounce.  What comes after in a completely broken market, the slow healing,  is the difficult part.
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