Friday, June 17, 2011

200 SMA history

It was a perfect technical bounce — market hit $SPX $RUT 200 SMA and bounced perfectly.   Traders were desperate for a bounce and they found a perfect reason for it — but it’s hard to believe that this will be THE bottom.    Why?  It’s very rare to have a perfect, neat and clean technical bounce on an important area to bottom a market.   Bottoms are most often messier affairs.   We looked through the SPX to look for the last time we made a technical bottom on the 200SMA (the most important moving average) and we had to go back all the way to 1997.
Click to enlarge:
Perfect bounce on the 200SMA today — excellent for short-term traders but not so important for longer-term traders.
The last time the 200SMA had any actual holding power was in 1997.

We grinded on it in 2009 but we were coming in from the underside– different scenario:

Enjoy it while it lasts, be it one day or one week,  but be nimble.  And if you are a swing trader, remember if the bounce/move is real (i.e. the second time in 14 years that we have a bottom on the 200SMA)  then there will be a plethora of good set-ups that will form over the following days/weeks.    Patience young Jedi.