Tuesday, May 17, 2011

The Last Stand

We hit multiple support levels today in the market — and all that happened was that bleeding was stalled and we closed flat.    To put it clearly, we hit the 50SMA on the SPY, the 100SMA on the IWM QQQ and the mighty 200SMA on SIL USO.   Usually when multiple support levels hit we are salivating over buying support.   Today we felt no such excitement; we scalped long AAPL SLV OXY and went out by the close.

What is somewhat strange about today is that when we have multiple support lines hit on the ETFs we usually have a ton of stocks hitting support — we had very few for today.  We’re not sure what’s going on but we don’t feel hungry for stocks right now.   It all feels dead catish — as if bounces now will only set up shorts.    We hope we’re wrong, we prefer strong trending bull markets than ones stuck in ranges.     Either way, we will obey whatever the market does — if market rallies we should see some longs set-up.   If market falters, a few shorts we already have on radar will trigger.    But for now, we’re in the undecided camp, leaning biased long for possible few day dead-cat bounce but taking things easy, as we always do when we’re lacking in conviction.
As we tweeted this morning — this is the first test of the 100SMA since last September.     It needs to hold for market for dip buyers to remain confident.
QQQ couldn’t hold the 50SMA yesterday but held on the 100SMA.  MoMo leaders here act awful and need to turn around for bull momo to stay afloat.

Higher low on silver today and SIL held the 200SMA.   If any continuation tomorrow, this will be our focus tomorrow for daytrades long.

SPY held the 50SMA and could bounce to 134.   However, right now there are just not enough bullish set-ups to convince us that this would be anything but a dead cat bounce.   Again though, we’d love to be proven wrong.

USO held the 200SMA — but our feeling is that the USD bottom is in short-term and it’s going to be sluggish for commodities going forward.

Please note that everything we write about has a short time-frame.  We are primarily day-traders but sometimes hold for 2-3 days.  Always keep that in context when reading our posts.

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