Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Commodities, you're dead to us

We’ve been commodity/tech based for what feels like years and for the first time in a while we had zero commodity alerts in the newsletter.   Every set-up we like right now is outside of this space.   We’re not calling for further death but what we are seeing are a lot of charts that have no edge.  We just have no interest in commodities right now which for us is pretty amazing.     We’ll regain interest if a) there is much deeper death and we go to next levels of support or b) they regain strength and set-up long
We wrote yesterday that if you bought silver major target was coming up on both SLV and SI_F 50SMA.   Silver went through the 50SMA average by 40 cents last night and reversed sharply today, currently down 5%.   We have no interest in silver unless a) it bases around 39.5 and forms a long on daily or b) goes crashing down to 30.   Everything in between is no man’s land.

We’ve shown this chart of copper quite a few times — looks horrible, nothing for us to do here.
These wide moves up and down usually are indicative of tops.   No interest in crude.

Overshoot of 100 SMA on the OIH,  bounce back to 100 SMA and down again we go.  Again, no interest here until a) much further death, possibly to 200SMA or b) it regains strength and sets up long.   Right now no man’s land.
We’re always buyers of first test of support, and this happened on FCX last week.  Now it’s second test,  we’re not touching it.

So the million dollar question is does the commodity complex drag down the whole market or do we find rotation?   Right now the answer is leaning towards rotation as tech, and especially semis, look very strong.

Semis are looking healthier than they have been in a long time.

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