Thursday, March 17, 2011

Late night thoughts

$ES_F is bobbing up and down with the Nikkei as news reports have become more optimistic in the last 4-5 hours. The first big reaction of this market is going to be completely correlated with the headlines and Japanese market reaction. If they can bring the power online and gain hold of the situation, market will bounce. If they fail to do so in time and situation deteriorates we will see more selling. Pretty simple stuff. However what will come after that initial reaction will be much more complex, not headline driven, and much more difficult to game.
We’re in for some turbulent times. Stay smart, don’t chase and whatever you do, don’t panic to the downside or the upside. And if you feel like you don’t have an edge then just stay out. There are worse things that can happen than staying in cash in once in a decade type catastrophic event.