Tuesday, December 07, 2010

Top Talk

We posted on Twitter yesterday that we had started a new set of swings, "almost every set-up in newsletter that hasn't triggered".  

Subscribers knew that this meant we went long stocks that had been on our alert list for days:  MON DHR NBL CSX STT AIG on top of swings initiated weeks ago CLF UPL OXY ATPG.    We knew market was already extended but what gave us confidence to initiate the positions was what we wrote at the end of the newsletter:

We strongly believe that we won't hit any significant intermediate top (not talking short-term 1-2 day pullback) until we lose most of our triggers.  In our experience tops have often come into play when a lot of our alerts trigger and then fail on the same day.   All we want at this point is for them at least to trigger as that would put us into the green on all our positions (since all the swings are in anticipation/under the alerts).


In extended markets the safest trade is TO the breakout, not after.    As we posted this AM we sold all our old swings near the open,  sold partials of new swings into the open, and were finally all out of everything before 10AM.    All green, all nicely profitable.

We're all cash now in all accounts.     As to the market we think we're heading in for some horizontal movement.  We have very few alerts left and a some basing and filling would do wonders for new setups. 

It's too early to tell yet but today could be a day that we described last night in which breakouts trigger and fail on same day, representative of an intermediate top.