Monday, November 15, 2010

Overshoot strategy, Post 6 Daytrader Talk

One of our favorite support buying strategies is the overshoot.   In our newsletter we had AGU 79 support for overshoot back into the 50SMA.

When a stock goes through an important ascending SMA (50SMA one of the most important next to the most important 200SMA) look for a secondary spot on daily.  The trade is to buy on the reversal on secondary support for a trade back into the 50SMA.    Therefore, buy reversal 79 for a trade back into 80.5.

AGU set-up well this morning as it fulfilled our support buying condition of spiking down to support without base and away from the 20EMA.    It made a low on 78.55 and reversed back up -- entry was 79 with stop on low of day (78.54).   This gives you a 46 cent stop.  The first target of a support trade is always a move back to the 20EMA (most often on the 5 min timeframe), in this case 79.8.  First partial is for 80 cents profit, almost 2-1 so far. 

Note the series of higher lows -- exactly what you want to see.   Second partials (again tweeted) was just over 80.2 on the spike up away from the EMA, now for 1.2 point profit on 46 cent stop, almost 3-1 risk reward.   The stop is constantly moving up with trend-line and EMA.   At this point a move below 79.6 would make us close the last 1/3 of our position and a move through over 80.5 would make us exit our last 1/3 partial.

This is one of our bread and butter trades around support.