Sunday, May 10, 2009

Market Talk

With the exception of the Nasdaq weakness (as we discussed on Friday) the bulls are still in control; however, this could change soon.

XLF long to the 200 SMA, after that we'll be looking for reversal shorts.

Commercial Real Estate looks like it has one more pop left but will offer an excellent shorting opportunity at the 200 SMA. Unless IYR shows very clear relative weakness, stay long until 40. Ideally we run for a day, and then gap-up to 40 -- that would be a very nice risk/reward spot short on 40 resistance.

If you're leaning bearish then hope for quick max pain; the longer we base under resistance the more chance that the break-out will be successful. This is the reason we're hoping for a very big run or gap-up to resistance as the urge to take profits will be very strong compared to a slow grind up and base at resistance (which would increase the success rate of any break-out). So if you're a bear, hope for a big 2 day rally!