Lots of levels now that bulls have to defend -- next sell-off most likely will not be this easy.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Today's triggers
May the bull market live on. All the triggers from last night's newsletter -- white arrow indicates the support buy price listed in newsletter. We weren't involved in all of these, for example we didn't buy AAPL this morning at 205, but these are all the alerts that triggered.
Lots of levels now that bulls have to defend -- next sell-off most likely will not be this easy.
Lots of levels now that bulls have to defend -- next sell-off most likely will not be this easy.
Trade updates
We traded the plan from last night from the blog post and newsletter picks. It worked very well and once again buying support in this bull market paid well.
We have sold all the positions we added into this rally and some partials from yesterday (CTRP sold into the open, WYNN took some off, sold partial DRYS) are now left with small core positions we'll keep -- with stops probably around today's low on most of them.
The arrows represent the buy spots we either put in newsletter or in the blog post last night.
Today we kicked ass -- but we are fully aware that a day will come when we're going to get our asses kicked from buying support. Until then, enjoy.
Update: we sold the rest into this rally and are now completely flat in all accounts.
We have sold all the positions we added into this rally and some partials from yesterday (CTRP sold into the open, WYNN took some off, sold partial DRYS) are now left with small core positions we'll keep -- with stops probably around today's low on most of them.
The arrows represent the buy spots we either put in newsletter or in the blog post last night.
Today we kicked ass -- but we are fully aware that a day will come when we're going to get our asses kicked from buying support. Until then, enjoy.
Update: we sold the rest into this rally and are now completely flat in all accounts.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
New positions
As you know we sold most of our swings yesterday (CAT DTG PCU CVX), and as we posted to our account this morning we also sold remaining positions (MICC QCOM).
In the late afternoon we started filling up our empty swing account with starter positions on the following stocks all close to support, be it daily support, 20 SMA or 50 SMA. The only stock we did not buy on support was WYNN, anticipating a 70 break-out. We would add on all the other stocks on further support but with WYNN we would be stopped out through today's low as there is no support nearby for a while.
APC on the 20 SMA, will add on 50 SMA if this level does not hold.
CHK near the 20 SMA, would add at 50 SMA.
CNQ on the 20 SMA, would add at 70 and then 50 SMA if level does not hold:
CTRP we bought very late in the day on the 50 SMA -- we'd probably get out of this position on weakness through 70 and possibly try again at 68 support.
MOS we bought in support area, would add at 61
PCU we sold yesterday close to 37 and picked up today at 34.87. We would add to this position on 34
SU we bought on the 20 SMA test, would add on 50 SMA
UPL we bought on 50 support but would add at 49 on 50 SMA
WYNN we bought not near support but on anticipation of break-out. We wouldn't add to this position and if weakness would sell through today's low.
The best thing for us would be if these levels hold and we rally tomorrow (already in the money for most of the positions thanks to a late day rally). The worst thing for us would not be weakness tomorrow but instead flat action. Why? Because if we selloff tomorrow we would be very oversold on most of these stocks -- we would add (all positions are starter 25% positions thus far), lower our average, and most likely get a nice bounce. However if the stocks do nothing but base at these levels then most likely we will go lower without any meaningful bounce for a while. Consolidation is never a good thing when you're buying support.
In the late afternoon we started filling up our empty swing account with starter positions on the following stocks all close to support, be it daily support, 20 SMA or 50 SMA. The only stock we did not buy on support was WYNN, anticipating a 70 break-out. We would add on all the other stocks on further support but with WYNN we would be stopped out through today's low as there is no support nearby for a while.
APC on the 20 SMA, will add on 50 SMA if this level does not hold.
CHK near the 20 SMA, would add at 50 SMA.
CNQ on the 20 SMA, would add at 70 and then 50 SMA if level does not hold:
CTRP we bought very late in the day on the 50 SMA -- we'd probably get out of this position on weakness through 70 and possibly try again at 68 support.
MOS we bought in support area, would add at 61
PCU we sold yesterday close to 37 and picked up today at 34.87. We would add to this position on 34
SU we bought on the 20 SMA test, would add on 50 SMA
UPL we bought on 50 support but would add at 49 on 50 SMA
WYNN we bought not near support but on anticipation of break-out. We wouldn't add to this position and if weakness would sell through today's low.
The best thing for us would be if these levels hold and we rally tomorrow (already in the money for most of the positions thanks to a late day rally). The worst thing for us would not be weakness tomorrow but instead flat action. Why? Because if we selloff tomorrow we would be very oversold on most of these stocks -- we would add (all positions are starter 25% positions thus far), lower our average, and most likely get a nice bounce. However if the stocks do nothing but base at these levels then most likely we will go lower without any meaningful bounce for a while. Consolidation is never a good thing when you're buying support.
Monday, January 11, 2010
Evening Update
As we posted this afternoon we sold all of our swings save MICC QCOM (sold CAT CVX DTG PCU) as we are looking for a further pull-back in the markets.
We still have many nice-looking charts but few of them are ready for prime-action (at least in the commodity space -- there are a few non-commodities that look good that we've been tracking for a while).
We're also looking to pick-up some commodity trades on support tomorrow so are hoping for a bit more weakness into the open.
Also going to watch some of the leader stocks tomorrow to see if they can hold support (GOOG on 50 SMA, AAPL on 208 support, GS on 50 SMA, etc.)
We posted this morning that today could very well be a short-term top (especially in commodities) and we're looking for consolidation. As we wrote late last week, we won't get too concerned until there is a broad selloff across multiple sectors without rotation. Until then all we're going to do is to switch capital from one sector into another.
Until tomorrow HCPG/BTG
We still have many nice-looking charts but few of them are ready for prime-action (at least in the commodity space -- there are a few non-commodities that look good that we've been tracking for a while).
We're also looking to pick-up some commodity trades on support tomorrow so are hoping for a bit more weakness into the open.
Also going to watch some of the leader stocks tomorrow to see if they can hold support (GOOG on 50 SMA, AAPL on 208 support, GS on 50 SMA, etc.)
We posted this morning that today could very well be a short-term top (especially in commodities) and we're looking for consolidation. As we wrote late last week, we won't get too concerned until there is a broad selloff across multiple sectors without rotation. Until then all we're going to do is to switch capital from one sector into another.
Until tomorrow HCPG/BTG
CAT swing
We posted this chart last week (Jan 07) on Chart.ly (and posted our entry at 2:07 PM of same day) on our account
Sold it today into the rally:
As you know we mostly day-trade but once in a while we like to swing these type of old-school stocks that need to be held for a few days. Lovely base on the stock -- we'd like to get back in on a re-test.
Sold it today into the rally:
As you know we mostly day-trade but once in a while we like to swing these type of old-school stocks that need to be held for a few days. Lovely base on the stock -- we'd like to get back in on a re-test.
Market Talk
Concerned to see futures flying last night because a ) that always invites selling especially in markets that have moved a lot and b) we had dozens of great alerts that we knew would be ruined.
All we've done today is sell partials on our swings in CAT CVX MICC and sold out completely DTG PCU, holding QCOM for longer term -- more fundie pick on their Snapdragon chip. No daytrades (which is astounding -- when do we ever go to 10:45 AM with no daytrades?)
Market needs a lot of time now to regroup. It's time to relax and look for support prices on daily instead of chasing break-outs.
All we've done today is sell partials on our swings in CAT CVX MICC and sold out completely DTG PCU, holding QCOM for longer term -- more fundie pick on their Snapdragon chip. No daytrades (which is astounding -- when do we ever go to 10:45 AM with no daytrades?)
Market needs a lot of time now to regroup. It's time to relax and look for support prices on daily instead of chasing break-outs.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Excerpt from tomorrow's newsletter
Posting often within Twitter's constricting 140 character policy has made us want to write long narratives/ This possibly is quite similar to how a teenage girl who grows up in a strict family (and who wasn't allowed to date boys) acts when she finally moves out and lives on her own in a college dorm.
In bull markets anticipate the breakouts, wait for confirmation for the breakdowns. In bear markets anticipate the break-down and wait for confirmation for the breakout.
There are some stocks we like to day-trade and there are other stocks we know we have to give more room to and which lend themselves more to holding overnight. FSYS for us on Friday was a nice little day-trade (unfortunately small because stock is so thin) but CAT is a name which we were already long and did not daytrade at the number knowing it would whip us around. We are currently long QCOM PCU CVX CAT DTG MICC. We took some DTG off late Friday after the break-out as we're not crazy about the stock and don't really know much about the sector. We rarely put on full size on a stock we are not acquainted with or in a sector we don't follow.
When the market is rough we elevate our standards and only put the best set-ups on our platform. When the market is as benign as this one we loosen our standards somewhat in order to broaden the horizon of opportunities. This is an amazing market right now for traders like us in which every break-out can be anticipated -- if it works, great, if it doesn't work, just add more on the dip and hold as it will breakout the next day. We have no fear right now and we haven't taken a real loss for a long time. This of course is a very rare occurence. Right now stocks that are extended take a break while other stocks rally -- perfect sector rotation. When we start to sell off broadly across all sectors then we'll get cautious.
There is one thing we can tell you with 100% guarantee: this type of tape will not last. One day we'll get smacked in the face and lose a chunk of money as the dips cease to be bought but until then we hope to milk it as much as we can. To put it in simple monetary terms: one day things change and the dips you have been buying just keep going down. You recognize that the sentiment has shifted and you exit for a nice loss of 10G. However because of the way you have been aggressively trading in the previous weeks you're up 100G on the same strategy. So yes you got your head smashed with a big one day loss but overall the strategy worked handsomely. The biggest condition of course is to know when the sentiment has changed (instead of just doubling down) but that's also where we come in to help. How will we know? Because of the base. Everything we do always comes back to the base. Our entries are never on top of extended moves. We buy near a base, we add on dips near base support zones -- and if the base goes, we take the loss. We don't freeze, hesitate, or change our strategy. It's simple -- 10 ninjas surround you in a dark, isolated alley and give you two options: they cut off your pinky or they cut off your legs and arms. As much as we hate the thought of the loss of our pinky, we don't hesitate in our decision. Ninjas, thank you for giving us a choice. Please proceed in cutting off our finger.
In bull markets anticipate the breakouts, wait for confirmation for the breakdowns. In bear markets anticipate the break-down and wait for confirmation for the breakout.
There are some stocks we like to day-trade and there are other stocks we know we have to give more room to and which lend themselves more to holding overnight. FSYS for us on Friday was a nice little day-trade (unfortunately small because stock is so thin) but CAT is a name which we were already long and did not daytrade at the number knowing it would whip us around. We are currently long QCOM PCU CVX CAT DTG MICC. We took some DTG off late Friday after the break-out as we're not crazy about the stock and don't really know much about the sector. We rarely put on full size on a stock we are not acquainted with or in a sector we don't follow.
When the market is rough we elevate our standards and only put the best set-ups on our platform. When the market is as benign as this one we loosen our standards somewhat in order to broaden the horizon of opportunities. This is an amazing market right now for traders like us in which every break-out can be anticipated -- if it works, great, if it doesn't work, just add more on the dip and hold as it will breakout the next day. We have no fear right now and we haven't taken a real loss for a long time. This of course is a very rare occurence. Right now stocks that are extended take a break while other stocks rally -- perfect sector rotation. When we start to sell off broadly across all sectors then we'll get cautious.
There is one thing we can tell you with 100% guarantee: this type of tape will not last. One day we'll get smacked in the face and lose a chunk of money as the dips cease to be bought but until then we hope to milk it as much as we can. To put it in simple monetary terms: one day things change and the dips you have been buying just keep going down. You recognize that the sentiment has shifted and you exit for a nice loss of 10G. However because of the way you have been aggressively trading in the previous weeks you're up 100G on the same strategy. So yes you got your head smashed with a big one day loss but overall the strategy worked handsomely. The biggest condition of course is to know when the sentiment has changed (instead of just doubling down) but that's also where we come in to help. How will we know? Because of the base. Everything we do always comes back to the base. Our entries are never on top of extended moves. We buy near a base, we add on dips near base support zones -- and if the base goes, we take the loss. We don't freeze, hesitate, or change our strategy. It's simple -- 10 ninjas surround you in a dark, isolated alley and give you two options: they cut off your pinky or they cut off your legs and arms. As much as we hate the thought of the loss of our pinky, we don't hesitate in our decision. Ninjas, thank you for giving us a choice. Please proceed in cutting off our finger.
Friday, January 08, 2010
Great Entry, Awful Exit
We found this TC chart at the end of December and were wowed by how gorgeous it was:
We exited much too early as the stock is still running:
Note to self -- it doesn't come often when one finds an aesthetically drog-dead gorgeous chart. Next time, have faith, put on more size, and then HOLD!
What went wrong? We have this inherent disdain for cheap stocks that we need to overcome. We didn't put on enough size on the stock so didn't take the trade seriously.
We exited much too early as the stock is still running:
Note to self -- it doesn't come often when one finds an aesthetically drog-dead gorgeous chart. Next time, have faith, put on more size, and then HOLD!
What went wrong? We have this inherent disdain for cheap stocks that we need to overcome. We didn't put on enough size on the stock so didn't take the trade seriously.
Numbers for the week
Percentage moves from trigger numbers posted night before for this week (Jan 04-08 2010):
We're mostly daytraders but our entries are based on daily charts so they often tend to also work well for swing trades.
We're mostly daytraders but our entries are based on daily charts so they often tend to also work well for swing trades.
This week's triggers
Here are our triggers for this week -- arrows/lines were the buy spots put the night before the trigger. A few flat, a few losers, and decent amount of winners. This represents ALL the stocks that triggered from our newsletter Mon-Friday this week. As you a week full of opportunities for day-traders and swing-traders. We're going long into the weekend QCOM PCU CAT CVX DTG MICC
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