Wednesday, November 04, 2009

Resistance shorts working

The daily charts out there are a complete chaotic mess --- what seems to be working more than break-outs are resistance short trades. Here are the two from last night's newsletter:

We wrote last night "Watch for possible reversal tomorrow near 41.9 resistance" and IYR came without a nickel of resistance and reversed and sold off for the rest of the day.





We wrote last night "Keep an eye on possible intraday reversal at the 50 SMA tomorrow near 45.5" and the stock reversed exactly at 45.5. Resistance shorts often work well on Fed days as traders are nervous on buying break-outs.


Sunday, November 01, 2009

The chart that tells the story



It really is all about the USD.

SPY talk


The market is broken (trend-line and 50 SMA gone) but also deeply oversold. We'll be looking short but only after a decent bounce. Next support on SPY is 102 -- we get there on Monday (while deeply oversold) and we'll be buyers of this area.

How to Daytrade Support

AU had been on our newsletter (Thursday newsletter) as a support buy on 36 near the 200 SMA on a deeply oversold/extended daily.

On Friday it set-up intraday. One of the most important things to remember when buying support is to stay away from the intraday base. In this case the intraday base was at 37 -- 1 point above our buy spot. Perfect. The stock accelerated into our buy zone as panic started taking over -- a steep descent into a major support zone is exactly what you want when you buy support. Entry was on the reversal of the candle into 36 (low 36.05) with fill around 36.2.

Where do you exit? By definition if you are buying the reversal of a deep speedy descent you will be buying away from the 5 min/20 EMA. The first partial exit is on the EMA. Now what about the rest?

Look at what the stock is doing on the EMA. Is it basing above, on, or below? If the latter two then start lightening your position even more -- if its basing above then hold to see where the stock can go. AU rallied straight away from the 5EMA and into resistance of S1 -- a perfect exit as the stock rallied away from the EMA . Rule of thumb when buying support or exiting against resistance -- buy the spike down away from the EMA and into support (on reversal so you have a stop and don't get blasted) and sell the spike away from the EMA and into resistance.

Friday, October 30, 2009

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Review of last night's selections:

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Thursday, October 29, 2009

Excerpt from last night's newsletter



MON 70 short from last night's newsletter:

Interestingly enough we were more interested in this short today with the market rallying than if it had been selling off. Why? Because had the market had been selling off, while very oversold, we'd be looking constantly for signs of reversal. Instead the market gapped up and ran while MON showed excellent relative weakness. Set-up at 70 was excellent and worked for over 1.5 points.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Market Talk


Trend day down through major support lines -- we're too oversold to short and we're still looking long into panic selling tomorrow. However the 50 SMA and trend-line are broken and technically the rally from March is over for now. A new range now has to be created.

We had a good day mostly due to our SPY trade. Here is the excerpt from today's newsletter:

We wrote last night "If we can get to the SPY 105 area tomorrow (while in an oversold state) we feel that it would be a very good risk-reward candidate. We would be buyers, in size, of the first touch on trend-line tomorrow near SPY 105 and would be willing to spill some blood in order to stay in the trade in case of panic selling beyond the number." SPY broke the base, crashed through 105 and reversed for a bounce before taking it out again later in the day. A 50-60 cent bounce might not seem like much but remember, it's all risk-reward. If we're risking 20 cents then 50-60 cent profit is very good.

If you held of course it would have been a different ending. We've been having a lot of success lately buying the move away from the EMA (5 min/20 EMA), into support, and then selling into the bounce back into the EMA.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Oversold

Market is heading into major support while deeply oversold -- we have over a dozen support buy alerts in our newsletter and will be buyers of any weakness/panic selling tomorrow.

Monday, October 26, 2009

The plot thickens




We're oversold and heading into the trend-line and 50 SMA on the SPY. We'll be buyers of this area if we can hit it tomorrow. On the other hand if we work off our oversold status in a few flat days then we will be short into support. One of the most important things about support buying is to know how oversold a stock is by the time it hits support. In practical terms: If we hit SPY 105 tomorrow we will go long. If we base here for a week and hit SPY 105 next week we will go short.

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Market Talk


We've been talking about this SPY 110 gap-fill area for months and now that we're finally here the market seems stuck. We have formidable resistance above and a solid trend-line below. One of them has to cry uncle soon. For now we've switched from break-out trading to buying support. If SPY 110 finally successfully breaks to the upside then we'll go back to break-out trading. If the trend-line breaks down we'll switch to shorting support. But for now what has worked very well is buying support, on daily, and also the 50 SMA.


November should be a very interesting month.

Tuesday, October 06, 2009

Today's Triggers

Good day for us (weak USD/strong commodities helped of course). Here are all the triggers:

WMS 45 alert blasted from the open but gave another entry later on

MELI alert 40 worked

GS pulled back to the EMA for an entry at 188 for a good daytrade

EOG base and break 84

EAC 40 worked well






AIG 44 was our alert spot from last night -- worked very well.

And our one short against resistance even worked as CMI reversed on the 50 SMA.

Monday, October 05, 2009




GS 188 should be great tell for market and the financials. Keep on the screen tomorrow.

Sunday, October 04, 2009

Paul Tudor Jones Videos

Watch these while you can (or download on your computer) as they are usually taken off YouTube after a few days.













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info AT highchartpatterns DOT COM

Sunday, September 20, 2009

Free newsletter for tomorrow

Our newsletter for tomorrow has long candidates (break-out and support) and a few shorts. We also talk about how we buy support. If you want a copy send us a line at

info AT highchartpatterns DOT COM

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Market Talk


Again an up day with many opportunities (best one being RL 70 from our newsletter last night for almost a 5 point move) but on the whole a chopper session. We like this gap fill area as the medium-term destination for the SPY and think that SPY 110 will represent a short-term top for the market.

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Today's triggers


WLT 63 good for 1% before reversal. Note that with the exception of RIG the commodity alerts worked but all eventually reversed. Commodities need a rest and any pull-back now would be a positive.

Not a coincidence that the best mover from our list today was a non-commodity stock. SOHU 66 very nice move for almost 2 points.

RIG 83 reversal for a loss

Good for 1% trade on MEE before reversal.

Great set-up on AKS at our 22.5 spot for a 2% win.


Again, solid action today on the triggers with small losses on RIG reversal and wins on AKS MEE SOHU and WLT. However, note that reversals were the norm in the commodity stocks and this could signal a short-term top in these names.

Update: reversal up for our commodity names; choppy action (USO looks like V). The more extended the commodities, the more choppy the price-action. Expect more going forward.

Monday, September 14, 2009

Today's triggers

BTU 37.25 alert worked for almost 2 points.

CNX 43 worked.


ESV didn't do much at 41

RIMM worked well on our 80 alert spot.


A ridiculously easy bull market in which one can buy any dip, any time. How long will it last?

Sunday, September 13, 2009

Buy on the dip


As most of our readers know we are primarily break-out traders. However when it comes to certain type of stocks we prefer to buy the dip rather than the rip. Note on the following chart of the gold miners -- after the initial break-out support was bought but also when investors got excited and the metal became extended in price the opening gap was sold.

We see this happening also on an intraday basis and are buying gold on dips to ascending EMAs.

Right now the best action is in gold stocks (not in terms of the stocks going up every day but rather obeying technical rules and bouncing where they are supposed to on a daily and intraday basis). Until this changes, whenever that may be, gold stocks will be our focus.

Wednesday, September 09, 2009

Gold support


We got some nice support zones for day-trades today on some of the gold stocks but are looking at more important support zones such as GDX 42 for swing-trades.

Monday, September 07, 2009

China and Gold

The following article explains fundamentally what we're seeing technically -- every dip in gold is being bought and the volume of the recent break-out is excellent. A long time ago we wrote "Chart Patterns are nothing but Footprints of the Greenbacks" meaning that all we do as technical traders is try to follow the tracks of instituational money; hoping to ride on its coat-tails, and ride the wave of momentum up and down. If China is buying gold on dips, it's safe to say that it's not a bad idea for the individual traders to do the same -- as long as it fits within valid technical parameters. Any pull-back to the break-out areas (or even pull-backs on minor support areas on the 60 MIN charts) would make us long.


http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100000821/china-bernanke-and-the-price-of-gold/

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has covered world politics and economics for 25 years, based in Europe, the US, and Latin America. He joined the Telegraph in 1991, serving as Washington correspondent and later Europe correspondent in Brussels. He is now International Business Editor in London.

China, Bernanke, and the price of gold

China has issued what amounts to the “Beijing Put” on gold. You can make a lot of money, but you really can’t lose.

I happened to see quite a bit of Cheng Siwei at the Ambrosetti Workshop, a gathering of politicians and global strategists at Lake Como, including a dinner at Villa d’Este last night at which he listened very attentively as a number of American guests tore President Obama’s economic and health policy to shreds.

Mr Cheng was until recently Vice-Chairman of the Communist Party’s Standing Committee, and is now a sort of economic ambassador for China around the world — a charming man, by the way, who left Hong Kong for mainland China in 1950 at the age of 16, as young idealist eager to serve the revolution. Sixty years later, he calls himself simply “a survivior”.

What he said about US monetary policy and gold – this bit on the record – would appear to validate the long-held belief of gold bugs that China has fundamentally lost confidence in the US dollar and is going to shift to a partial gold standard through reserve accumulation.

He played down other metals such as copper, saying that they could not double as a proxy currency or store of wealth.

“Gold is definitely an alternative, but when we buy, the price goes up. We have to do it carefully so as not stimulate the market,” he said.

In other words, China is buying the dips, and will continue to do so as a systematic policy. His comment captures exactly what observation of gold price action suggests is happening. Every time it looks as if the bullion market is going to buckle, some big force steps in from the unknown.

Investors long-suspected that it was China. We later discovered that Beijing had in fact doubled its gold reserves to 1054 tonnes. Fait accompli first. Announcement long after.

Standing back, you can see that the steady rise in gold over the last eight years to $994 an ounce last week – outperforming US equities fourfold, even with reinvested dividends – has roughly tracked the emergence of China as a superpower in foreign reserve holdings (now $2 trillion).

As I have written in today’s paper, Mr Cheng (and Beijing) takes a dim view of Ben Bernanke’s monetary experiments at the Federal Reserve.

“If they keep printing money to buy bonds it will lead to inflation, and after a year or two the dollar will fall hard. Most of our foreign reserves are in US bonds and this is very difficult to change, so we will diversify incremental reserves into euros, yen, and other currencies,” he said.

This line of argument is by now well-known. Less understood is how much trouble the Fed’s QE policies are causing in China itself, where they have vicariously set off a speculative boom on the Shanghai exchange and in property. Mr Cheng said mid-level house prices are now ten times incomes.

“If we raise interest rates, we will be flooded with hot money. We have to wait for them. If they raise, we raise.”

“Credit in China is too loose. We have a bubble in the housing market and in stocks so we have to be very careful, because this could fall down.”

Of course, China cold end this problem by letting the yuan rise to its proper value, but China too is trapped. Wafer-thin profit margins on exports mean that vast chunks of Chinese industry would go bust if the yuan rose enough to close the trade surplus. China’s exports were down 23pc in July from a year before even at the current exchange rate, and exports make up 40pc of GDP. “We have lost 20m jobs in this crisis,” he said.

China’s mercantilist export strategy has led the country into a cul-de-sac. China must continue to run its trade surplus. It must accumulate hundreds of billions more in reserves. Ergo, it must buy a great deal more gold.

Where is the gold going to come from?

Friday, September 04, 2009

Triggers for Friday: target trades


For today's newsletter we had written, "Not a clean spot but we'll buy CF on strength for a trade to at least 85.5" and CF set-up base and break at 84 and 85 for a good run.



From last night's newsletter: "AGU target trade to 50 on any Ag-Chem strength" Very nice target trade to resistance.

Thursday, September 03, 2009

Triggers from yesterday's newsletter


PAAS 21.5
KGC 21

GG 41

AEM 63


ABX 39


All our precious metal triggers grinded higher during the day-- as far as break-outs go these last two days in the precious metal sector have been golden.

Profits on Gold

We posted our entry in AEM GDX yesterday and thought it would be considerate to do the same for the exit -- we added to both names this morning (and a few others that were posted in last night's newsletter including ABX GG KGC PAAS) and now have taken our exit.

Wednesday, September 02, 2009

Free Newsletter

We discuss some of our core strategies in our newsletter tonight -- if you want a copy send us an email and we'd be happy to send it to you.


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All eyes on Gold


Great high-volume move on Gold stocks today (thus far anyway -- we're writing this at 12 PM EST). We're long GDX and AEM and will swing them both if they close well.

Support Buys




Two support buys from our newsletter for Tuesday and Wednesday -- Circles represent the buy spots posted in our newsletter

Monday, August 24, 2009

Benign Trading Environment

Easy set-up on our AMP 30 alert from this weekend.

Base and break on CF 83 - one point under our spot ( most common place for base and breaks)

COG went from our spot near the open to R1 before reversing.

CTSH 35 failure
Very nice set up on EAC 38 from last night's alert

MS 30 went near the open.


VLO 19 finally broke-out