Today's triggers--excerpt from tonight's report

Volatile move in ICE today -- here is our trade in it: The stock gapped down along with the market but then started a fast run for resistance at 98 -- at that point we were wanting to get in but were hesitating because of the gap-down (in market and in the stock) and the lack of any base. The stock broke resistance (a) and we waited for an entry to the EMA. We bought a half position (b) near 96.5 on the pull-back and bounce on the EMA (even though EMA was not ascending, thus the half position) and watched. The stock rallied to R1 but couldn't take out 97.5 and quickly reversed down back through the EMA thus stopping us out at 96.

A good example of why you don't want to be in the stock once the EMA is broken. We can live with the 50 cent loss we took, that's just part of the game, but we would have been livid with ourselves if we had a multiple-point loss on this trade. Losses are a natural part of the business, it's only when traders go in denial over what they see in price-action and refuse to take the iniital small loss that you get a real hit/blow-out.

JOYG very nice base and break at 39.7-39.8 with an add at 40.

RGLD 42.5 worked.

WFC set up well at the daily spot of 26 even though entry could have been anywhere over 25.8 as the stock was rising over an ascending EMA:

Giddy market continues up -- stay long until the music stops.

Update: small market reversal after writing this post and another trigger FWLT (24) which unfortunately hit our spot after being mentioned by an analyst on CNBC.

Market acting more tired but refusing to pull-back in any significant manner.

Meat and Potatoes

We had listed MR 30 on our newsletter for a while now and today it finally broke out. The volume was good and the set-up was excellent. Let's go through it with some more detail:

At point A the stock approaches the 30 resistance spot but the angle of ascent is too vertical and the stock reverses. The stock then bases and digests the move before approaching resistance again -- at this second attempt (with its excellent relative strength and volume) it was a buy (point B) with a stop under the basing level near 29.8. At point C it was a good idea to take some partial profits on the quick pop up. The stock then reversed back to the break-out point but did not break the EMA. Note how it then proceeded to coast along the ascending EMA until it finally popped again (point D) in which further profits should have been taken. Note how the ascending EMA rides up with the stock and the stop on the remaining shares trails up with the stock.

This is a perfect example of a break-out trade using our system in the current market. We'll be posting more trades like this in the future for readers curious on how we trade.

Update: the stock reversed back to the EMA and broke it -- that was the signal to exit remaining shares (unless swinging in which case you would have a stop under 30).

Market Talk

This is the most bullish action we've seen in a long time in terms of break-out trading. We've had over 12 alerts work for over 1% (and many in the 3-4% range) from last night's newsletter including:

APD 70, FCL 33, DD 29, INFY 41, MON 82, ACL 124, AGU 42, ANR 33, etc.

With the break-out of SPY today (assuming we close well) SPY could easily hit 100 sometime next week. We've had many positive days in a row (12 for Nasdaq) and any pull-back would be a good buying spot.

SPY talk

As we wrote in our newsletter the run up from 88 to 96 is too vertical for us to have conviction in a SPY breakout over 96.11 but it we can base above the 50 SMA for a while this will be an excellent long pattern. If the bulls press their luck and try to break-out in the next few days the break-out will either be weaker or fail. Bull or bear -- we need a pull-back or at least horizontal movement to digest the gains.

The buying frenzy continues

The bulls aren't giving an inch to the bears and as long as this continues we'll be buying the break-outs.

Here are two that have already broken out from last night's newsletter -- both also set-up very well intraday.

Bulls won't stop

Here are some daily alerts we had from last night's newsletter -- lines representing day-trade trigger spots. Most are still valid for you swing traders if the stocks close well:

Bulls dig in the horns

A lot of subscribers we have use similar techniques as we do to trade. Others use different strategies to make profits on our ideas. But one thing that is always constant: our watch-list moves and it's a great place to find ideas no matter what your trading methodology.

Bulls made it 4/4 today and as extended as some of the charts were from last night's newsletter, most still worked.

Here are last night's triggers -- line in the daily chart is the trigger point.

Shorts from yesterday's newsletter

EOG 65.5 short

CNX 33 short from last night with primary target at 32.

BHI at 35.6

These three were all the stocks that triggered from yesterday's newsletter. There should be more opportunities short in the commodity sectors next week. Have a good weekend and happy July 4th.

Trades

We frequently discuss our trades in the nightly newsletter. Last night we talked about how we screwed up a trade in MON short and in tonight's newsletter we'll talk about the trades we took this morning. Here's a preview:

Our day started with a small loss as we put out a small feeler short on BHI at 35.8 (ahead of the 35.6 short alert). The move started well as the stock went close to our alert (4 cents away) but then reversed sharply up and stopped us out at 35.9 out for a dime loss. This was a good tell for us to start looking long.

CNQ 51 resistance that we showed yesterday served as resistance again today. However we didn't short this at 51 because we liked the price-action and instead waited for an entry long. The entry long came as the stock consolidated on the 5min/20EMA and R1. It finally dipped a penny lower than previous low (went to 50.31), took the stops out, and reversed up. We bought from 50.46 to 50.6.

SNDA offered a base and break at 57.5; at 58 itself the break-out failed.

Our biggest trade though came in SPY itself. This is from last night as we wrote that "through today's high and we break the trend-line and have a good chance of going higher".

Yesterday's high was 91.08 -- stock went close to that area and stopped on R1 within the first 30 minutes of the day. Then the SPY reversed slowly back to the 5min/20EMA, consolidated, and broke-out. Buy point was just under 90.8 with around a 20 cent stop (90.6). If you're trading the ES the break-out was at 903. If you're trading the SPY/ES, this is as good as it gets with everything aligning as it should.

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Selling Pressure

Here are all the shorts that triggered from our newsletter last night (the arrow is the alert price):

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