Thursday, September 15, 2011

The Game Plan

This morning the market reversed at 121 $SPY resistance (and $ES_F 1200). Day is still young and we could base intraday and take out 121 before the close –even though we’d prefer a close under 121, a few days basing, and then a breakout of 121 and into next resistance of 123.5 which would be top of channel/50SMA.

Of course in this market you have to be open to all options — and reversing back down is also one of them. However, this scenario is looking less likely in light of recent market action.

Tech, retail and trannies are acting well, but basic materials and financials have to start pulling their own weight soon if this rally is going to have any standing power. The daily chart is technically still in the bear camp until we break out of this range but short-term the price action is with the bulls. Our focus into the next few days will be the catch-up sectors (especially basic materials) as tech takes a rest.