Furthering the bull case is the bar down below the 50SMA for $TLT
On the worry side we’d like miners to act better– but we’d defer to the actual metals ($SI_F and $GC_F) and if they break-out that’s good enough for the bull case.
Copper has broken out of the range and now is basing nicely. $HG_F
Euro on the other hand is just following the trend-line down — Note however that one good day would break it out of the pattern.
The same can be said for this risk-on metal — silver right now has a bearish pattern but one good day would take it above the trend-line. Many charts to us look the same — we’re not anticipating but we do understand that they could be on the cusp of a break-out and it’s good to have that possibility in your trading plan come Monday.
So to recap — we’ve seen this scenario before where things are lining up, bulls are excited and bang bears pull the rug out. So yes we approach break-out possibility with cynicism but at the same time we do see that this is the first time $SPY has approached the 200 SMA from a decent base which increases the possibility that yes, this time will be different.